Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.012895 0.014574 0.016392 0.018505 0.020895 0.023515 0.026606
2025-11-23 0.010033 0.012301 0.014960 0.018313 0.022430 0.027327 0.033602
2025-11-30 0.008711 0.011291 0.014489 0.018751 0.024289 0.031257 0.040710
2025-12-07 0.007383 0.010012 0.013423 0.018179 0.024652 0.033178 0.045298
2025-12-14 0.006468 0.009122 0.012702 0.017893 0.025249 0.035332 0.050261
2025-12-21 0.005663 0.008270 0.011912 0.017381 0.025414 0.036824 0.054347
2025-12-28 0.005322 0.008026 0.011927 0.017977 0.027162 0.040648 0.062068
2026-01-04 0.004963 0.007711 0.011792 0.018316 0.028529 0.043987 0.069321
2026-01-11 0.004674 0.007467 0.011731 0.018741 0.030035 0.047627 0.077318
2026-01-18 0.004293 0.007039 0.011341 0.018602 0.030620 0.049849 0.083210
2026-01-25 0.003984 0.006694 0.011048 0.018581 0.031372 0.052367 0.089762
2026-02-01 0.003663 0.006301 0.010638 0.018321 0.031688 0.054170 0.095224
2026-02-08 0.003459 0.006092 0.010524 0.018566 0.032907 0.057626 0.103925
2026-02-15 0.003203 0.005772 0.010196 0.018410 0.033412 0.059892 0.110721
2026-02-22 0.003069 0.005654 0.010206 0.018849 0.035004 0.064188 0.121562
2026-03-01 0.002795 0.005258 0.009686 0.018274 0.034681 0.064974 0.125892
2026-03-08 0.002590 0.004971 0.009339 0.017987 0.034864 0.066692 0.132115
2026-03-15 0.002373 0.004645 0.008893 0.017472 0.034559 0.067448 0.136498
2026-03-22 0.002316 0.004621 0.009016 0.018071 0.036477 0.072638 0.150182
2026-03-29 0.002230 0.004535 0.009011 0.018412 0.037901 0.076956 0.162443
2026-04-05 0.002160 0.004473 0.009049 0.018839 0.039531 0.081807 0.176219
2026-04-12 0.002034 0.004287 0.008822 0.018700 0.039967 0.084231 0.185007
2026-04-19 0.001930 0.004137 0.008658 0.018678 0.040647 0.087210 0.195244